We present variational estimates for the low-lying energies of a simple matrix model that approximates SU(3) Yang-Mills theory on a three-sphere of radius R. By fixing the ground state energy, we obtain the (integrated) renormalization group (RG) equation for the Yang-Mills coupling g as a function of R. This RG equation allows us to estimate the masses of other glueball states, which we find to be in excellent agreement with lattice simulations.